Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.     

管辂易学研究——兼论术数学的思维方式

易学可以分为两部分:理论的层面和术数的层面。学界以往对易学的术数层面关注较少，一是缘于学者对“术数”的偏见，二是术数学自身缺少系统性反思的理论大师。三国时的管辂便是试图对术数学进行理论说明的人。牟宗三曾经藉由管辂来研究中国传统的一类知识系统，但尚有许多内容待发掘。管辂说“善易者不论《易》”，这是对术数易地位的辩护，同时也是对经学易和玄学易的回应。这种反对，不能从象数和义理对立的角度去理解，而应从文本和实践的区别来认识。管辂认为，术数的根本在于“神”，这个神不是玄学或思辨意义上的“玄之又玄”，而是实践意义中的通感和知几能力，它奠基于人自身的命限和气质中。但对于神的体悟又不能仅仅等同于“直觉”和“神秘主义”，因为它对于表现的通孔———象，以及工夫论基础，都有明确的要求。在这里，我们看到了不隶属于理性、直觉或神秘主义的一种独特思维方式。     

“健康中国”背景下全民健身与全民健康融合研究

结合我国实际，从全民健身和全民健康的科学理念、科学研究、人才培养、体医融合、设施建设、产业发展、“互联网+”运用等措施，实现全民健身和全民健康的深度融合，保障政府工作落地生根，促进全民健康。     

教育时空拓展:教师专业成长的机遇与挑战

随着人类文明的进步、社会的发展以及信息技术的普及，教育时间和空间得到迅速拓展。教育时空拓展正如一把双刃剑，给教育活动的实施带来机遇的同时也带来了挑战。教师作为教育活动的主要组织者和实施者，在享受机遇的同时也要迎接教育时空拓展所带来的挑战。通过分析教育时空拓展的内涵与表征，发现教师专业成长正处在社会化、终身化与数字化的发展大潮中，因此教师要充分利用好教育时空拓展带来的机遇，同时慎重应对由此面临的挑战，不断提高应变能力，以促进教师专业成长和教育事业的发展。     

川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回族际通婚现状调查研究

历史上川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回、汉等民族之间不通婚的情况在方志中有所记载，现当代的一些调查资料也反映出这一事实。新中国成立以来，随着族际交往日益频繁，当地各民族之间逐渐开始通婚，尤其是改革开放以后，族际通婚现象日益普遍，数量比例呈增长趋势，通婚半径也不断扩大。当地苗族、彝族、回族的族际通婚对象以汉族为主，且存在着民族、地区、性别等差异。从“族内婚”到大规模的“族际婚”，民族政策、外部环境、文化趋同等客观因素发挥了重要作用，而民族心理这一主观因素则起着决定性的作用。     

A global meaning of supply chain social sustainability

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to help reduce tensions in supply chain social sustainability (SCSS) decisions by providing a common global, contextual definition of social sustainability. This exploratory study utilised an inductive structured interview method to capture SCSS concept meanings. Those interviewed are from, have lived, and worked in developed economies, emerging economies and the base of the pyramid (BOP) economies. The results present a new global baseline definition of SCSS to inform theory and practice by finding that SCSS meanings differ not only between the different levels of economic development, but also within the levels as well. Culture, community and whether basic human needs are met all weigh into perspectives of what this concept is and should entail; a broad, contingent definition is most appropriate moving forward for sustainability planning and execution. Further research with stakeholders in more countries and communities is needed to validate our proposal.     

Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study

In risk analysis and research, the concept of risk is often understood quantitatively. For example, risk is commonly defined as the probability of an unwanted event or as its probability multiplied by its consequences. This article addresses (1) to what extent and (2) how the noun risk is actually used quantitatively. Uses of the noun risk are analyzed in four linguistic corpora, both Swedish and English (mostly American English). In total, over 16,000 uses of the noun risk are studied in 14 random (n = 500) or complete samples (where n ranges from 173 to 5,144) of, for example, news and magazine articles, fiction, and websites of government agencies. In contrast to the widespread definition of risk as a quantity, a main finding is that the noun risk is mostly used nonquantitatively. Furthermore, when used quantitatively, the quantification is seldom numerical, instead relying on less precise expressions of quantification, such as high risk and increased risk. The relatively low frequency of quantification in a wide range of language material suggests a quantification bias in many areas of risk theory, that is, overestimation of the importance of quantification in defining the concept of risk. The findings are also discussed in relation to fuzzy‐trace theory. Findings of this study confirm, as suggested by fuzzy‐trace theory, that vague representations are prominent in quantification of risk. The application of the terminology of fuzzy‐trace theory for explaining the patterns of language use are discussed.     

Measuring long‐term trends in policy coherence for development

This article measures long term trends in policy coherence for development. Based on result chains, it develops a counterfactual methodology, and then applies it to assess changes in inputs, outputs and outcomes over time. While the literature does not indicate any significant change in policy coherence for development over the last decade, this research finds that, if the time scale is lengthened to 50 years, an overall increase in policy coherence for development of the Dutch government, vis‐à‐vis the DR Congo, in the domains of finance and security, can be detected. These changes in policy coherence for development inputs seem to have contributed, in conjunction with similar policies from other countries, in some instances, to positive outcomes in the DRC.     

柏拉图的“否定神学”——普罗科勒斯对《巴曼尼得斯篇》“第一组假设”的解释

普罗科勒斯把柏拉图的《巴曼尼得斯篇》第二部分划分为九组假设，他认为第一组假设的主题是“太一”。由于“太一”超越于所有的存在之上，因此它就不具有任何肯定的特征，我们只能通过一种否定的方式来把握它。“太一”的这种“否定”特征是高于所有“肯定”的，“否定神学”并不是由我们人类理智的某种缺陷所造成的，而是取决于“太一”自身的超越性。第一组假设中的那些“否定”也不是任意的，而是体现了一种理智的秩序。     

Legitimating the Philippines as a language learning space: Transnational Korean youth's experiences and evaluations

This paper examines how a peripheral English‐speaking country is constructed as a legitimate language learning space in the global English language teaching (ELT) industry by investigating South Koreans’ recent engagement in Philippine English education. It focuses on a short‐term English study abroad program, in which the Philippines serves as a transit place prior to students’ moving to a Western English‐speaking country. Drawing data from ethnographic research on South Korean youth studying English abroad, the article analyzes why Korean students seek Philippine English education in spite of their apparent pursuit of authentic English, and how they evaluate their learning experience in the Philippines. This paper finds that the Philippines holds a niche market in the global ELT industry by separating a space for English learning from other public and everyday spaces of English use and offering pedagogically intensive but emotionally supportive environments to English learners.